The Premier League table has started doing something strange.
Arsenal and Manchester City have disappeared into the distance already, both sitting on 12 points from four games.
Then it gets weird.
Leeds and Hull are currently occupying third and fourth. Chelsea are sixth. Liverpool are eighth. Manchester United are 13th.
Four games is obviously nowhere near enough to tell us where everyone finishes in May. But it is enough to expose how fragile the assumptions around the traditional top four already look.
Because if Arsenal and City are the two obvious names, who actually owns the other two Champions League places?
Liverpool Don’t Look Like Liverpool Yet
Liverpool are probably the easiest team to explain away.
New manager. New system. New expectations.
But eventually, explanations become the thing you’re trying to escape.
They’ve taken six points from their first four games and drawn three of them, including a goalless draw with Fulham. That’s not disastrous, but it isn’t the profile of a team that looks ready to bully its way back into the top four either.
And the bigger issue is that Liverpool have lost a lot of certainty.
A new manager means new patterns. New players mean new chemistry. The team may eventually become very good, but “eventually” is doing a lot of work in that sentence.
Chelsea Have the Squad. The Defence Is the Problem.
Chelsea are easier to believe in on paper.
The attacking talent is there, Joao Perdo, Cole Pamer and Morgan Rogers have hit the ground running. The squad is deep and the club clearly expects to be competing near the top, but they’ve already conceded nine goals in four league games.
You cannot build a Champions League campaign on the assumption that your attack will simply score its way out of every defensive problem.
Their 2-2 draw with Hull was particularly revealing: Chelsea scored twice but still couldn’t put away a newly promoted side.
The talent is obvious, but they lack defensive control
Manchester United Have Gone Back to Being a Question
Four points from four games is a difficult place to start a top-four argument.
United lost to Hull, beat Ipswich, drew with Everton and then lost the Manchester derby to City. They currently sit 13th.
The problem isn’t that United are suddenly a bad team.
It’s that last season’s improvement created an expectation that this season would be about consolidation and progression.
Instead, they’re already having to explain the gap between the team people thought they were becoming and the team the table currently shows.
That gap can close.
But it has to close quickly.
And That’s Before We Talk About Leeds and Hull
This is where the race gets fun.
Leeds are unbeaten after four games.
Hull are also unbeaten.
Neither was supposed to be having this conversation this early.
And while it would be ridiculous to extrapolate four games into a 38-game season, their presence changes the mathematics of the race. Every point dropped by Liverpool, Chelsea or United suddenly matters more when there are other teams sitting above them.
That’s what makes this year’s top-four race uncomfortable.
The established clubs don’t look untouchable.
The challengers don’t look scared.
And Arsenal and City have already created separation at the top.
So Who Actually Makes the Top Four?
That’s the prediction worth arguing about.
Arsenal and City currently look like the safest assumptions. Behind them, the picture is much less settled.
Liverpool have the pedigree.
Chelsea have the squad.
United have last season’s improvement to point to.
And then there are the teams nobody expected to be having this conversation yet.
The Octupus market gives you a way to take a position on where this race is going rather than simply arguing about it.
Who makes the top four?
The market is open.
